Corn:The forecast for the supply and demand situation of corn in China this month remains consistent with last month. At present, most of the Northeast region has good conditions of light, water, and temperature, with suitable soil moisture, which is conducive to the emergence and growth of corn seedlings. There will be significant precipitation in most parts of Northeast China in the next 10 days, accompanied by strong convective weather in some areas. It is expected to improve the soil drought in Tongliao, Chifeng, and southwestern Liaoning in Inner Mongolia. The high demand for corn feed consumption has slightly declined, while the consumption of deep processing has stopped declining and rebounded. The inventory of North and South ports continues to decrease, and the overall supply and demand remain in a tight balance. In the international market, the weather conditions in the main corn producing areas of the United States are generally good, and Brazil's second season corn harvest has begun, with overall sufficient supply.

Wang Yang, Chief Analyst of Corn

　　Soybeans:This month's forecast for the supply and demand situation of Chinese soybeans in 2025/26 remains consistent with last month. Currently, farmers in the main production areas are experiencing a bottoming out of aged beans, with a tight supply of high-quality bean sources and an overall slowdown in market purchases and sales. The sowing of new season soybeans in the Northeast production area has basically ended, and most areas have good light and water conditions, which are conducive to the emergence and growth of soybeans. From a global market perspective, Brazil's soybean production in 2024/25 reached its highest level in history, while soybean production in countries such as Argentina and Uruguay remained basically the same as the previous year. The global soybean supply is abundant, and it is expected that ending inventory will increase. The weather in the main soybean producing areas of the United States is good, and the progress of soybean planting in the new season is smooth. The weather conditions during the growing season have become the focus of market attention.

Chief Soybean Analyst Yin Ruifeng

cotton：Affected by the excessive tariffs imposed by the United States, cotton imports were lower than expected. This month, the import volume for 2024/25 will be adjusted to 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 300000 tons from last month, and the ending inventory will be reduced to 8.01 million tons. This month's forecast shows that the supply and demand situation of Chinese cotton in 2025/26 will remain consistent with last month. Since sowing, the overall light and temperature in cotton growing areas across the country have been suitable, which is conducive to cotton growth. Currently, cotton in most parts of Xinjiang has entered the bud stage, while cotton in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin is in the fifth true leaf to bud stage. Most cotton development is advanced by 3-15 days, and the impact of weather on yield needs to be continuously monitored in the later stage.

Cotton Chief Analyst Wang Yunjuan

edible vegetable oil：There will be no adjustment to the supply and demand balance sheet of edible vegetable oils in China for the year 2024/25 this month. The summer harvest of rapeseed has been gradually completed, and the meteorological conditions in the main production areas are favorable for the maturity and sun drying of rapeseed. Edible vegetable oil has entered the off-season of consumption, and the price trend has weakened in the later stage, overall still within the estimated range. The forecast values for the production, consumption, and trade of edible vegetable oils for the year 2025/26 remain consistent with the previous month.

Zhang Wenli, Chief Analyst of Edible Vegetable Oil

sugar：This month, the sugar production data for 2024/25 will be calibrated, with an increase of 10000 tons to 11.16 million tons. The sugar production for 2024/25 has ended. According to statistics from the China Sugar Association, as of the end of May, the cumulative sugar production in China was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons year-on-year; Accumulated sales of 8.11 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.52 million tons year-on-year; The sales progress is 72.7%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points year-on-year. This month's forecast data for China's sugar supply and demand situation for the year 2025/26 will not be adjusted. Since May, precipitation in Guangxi has eased the previous drought situation, while Yunnan has received more rainfall than usual, which is beneficial for sugarcane growth; Although the sowing of sugar beets in Inner Mongolia has been delayed due to low temperatures, the recent improvement in light and heat conditions has led to the recovery of sugar beet growth, and the overall growth of sugar beets in Xinjiang is good. Internationally, it is expected that the main producing country India will increase production in 2025/26, while the impact of the drought in Brazil will be limited. Global sugar supply is becoming more relaxed, and international sugar prices are running weakly. In the later stage, it is necessary to closely monitor the precipitation situation in major producing countries and the progress of sugar production and export in Brazil.

Sugar analyst Huang Yi

China Corn Supply and Demand Balance Sheet

Note: The corn market year is from October of the current year to September of the following year.

China Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Sheet

Note: The soybean market year is from October of the current year to September of the following year.

China Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet

Note: The cotton market year is from September of the current year to August of the following year.

China Edible Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand Balance Sheet

Note: 1. The annual market period for edible vegetable oil is from October of the current year to September of the following year. 2. Palm oil statistics do not include palm stearin. 3. The domestic prices of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil are third grade soybean oil, third grade rapeseed oil, and first grade peanut oil, respectively. The price of palm oil is the arrival price of 24 degree palm oil at the port.

China Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet

Note: The sugar market year is from October of the current year to September of the following year.

[Note]:The Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Team (CASDE), supported by the Early Warning Information Analysis Team (EWIA Team), is responsible for analyzing the supply and demand situation of agricultural products in China.

Special statement from experts: The views presented in this report are the predicted results of the team's research and should not be used as a direct basis for investment or operation. As referenced, we do not assume any responsibility.

Corn:Wang Yang (Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, email: wakobeng@hotmail.com ）.

Soybeans:Yin Ruifeng (Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, E-Mail: yinruifeng@agri.gov.cn ）.

Cotton:Wang Yunjuan (Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, E-Mail: wangyunjuan@agri.gov.cn ）.

Edible vegetable oil:Zhang Wenli (Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, email: zhwl1229@163.com ）.

Sugar:Huang Yi (Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, email: huangyi@agri.gov.cn ）.

The release date of the "Analysis of China's Agricultural Product Supply and Demand Situation" (CASDE) in 2025 is January 10th, February 11th, March 11th, April 10th, May 12th, June 12th, July 11th, August 12th, September 12th, October 9th, November 10th, and December 9th. The public can download it for free from the China Agriculture and Rural Information Network (www.agri.cn). If you have any questions, you can consult relevant analysts through email.

Attachment download:

Analysis of the Supply and Demand Situation of Agricultural Products in China in June 2025 (CASDE No.108). pdf